Will the Senate Flip?

Over at Politico, Larry Sabato predicts that the GOP will pick up four to eight seats in November.  The Senate flips at six seats; at five, the Dems have Biden to break a tie.  Sabato ranks the likelihood of seats flipping by state, from most to least likely:  South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, and Oregon.

As you watch polls between now and November, if the GOP does well in the states towards the bottom of that list, you may see a Republican wave breaking.  Conversely, if the Dems look good in the states near the top of the list, 2014 may not be so bad for them.

 

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2 comments on “Will the Senate Flip?

  1. danielfee says:

    Right now KY & GA are more likely to flip than Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, or North Carolina. The media long ago created their narrative for the 2014 election and won’t give it up even when the polls are not supporting their story.

    • I think AR looks very good for Pryor, although lots of time between now and Nov. I actually feel pretty bullish about the Dems and the Senate. They have 5 seats to lose and still not lose control.

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