Obama Up by Ten in New Pew Poll

The Pew Research Center Poll released today finds President Obama up by 10 over Mitt, 51 to 41%.  It’s registered voters, though, not likely voters, so not as reliable.

Mittens’ favorables continue to be upside down, with 52% having an unfavorable view of him and 37% favorable.  The polling was done before Mitt’s triumphant trip abroad.

Obama is at the favorable number considered the bare minimum to be re-elected — 50%, with 45% unfavorable.

Mitt isn’t succeeding at narrowing the gender gap:  56% of women favor Obama, with 37% for Mitt.

Obama gets voters under 30 (58% to 34%), while Mitt gets those 65 and up (49% to 45%).

Independent voters — you know, the folks who actually decide these things — are almost evenly divided, with 45% for Obama and 43% for Mitt.

Cooler Heads Starting to Prevail on Hilary Rosen

From Linda Hirshman, “Hilary Rosen was right,” WaPo:

“Beltway pundit Hilary Rosen committed a mortal sin of American politics.  She spoke the truth with a microphone on.

“In the furor, everyone seemed to forget that unpaid mothers and household work are not what the discussion is about.  Republicans are not talking about how jobs for stay-at-home moms have decreased under Obama.

“They are talking about how paid work for women has suffered.

“Although Ann Romney may be a fine spokesperson on some issues, the dirty little secret of angling for female votes is that while all women’s work, inside or outside the home, has the same worth, as Michelle Obama and Barbara Bush sweetly expressed, all women do not have the same interests.  Women who work in the home do not have the same interest in the recovery of the formal job market as women who have to work for pay.  Indeed, wage-earning women probably have more in common with their paycheck-dependent male co-workers on the subject of economic recovery than with household laborers such as Ann Romney.”

Ann Romney may have skipped a meal so she could fit into an evening dress, but she’s never skipped a meal so her children could eat instead.  Mitt’s relying on Ann about women’s economic issues just keeps him inside the closed loop of their charmed life together.  He doesn’t have a clue, and neither does she.

They both are picture perfect for the bubble of La Jolla.  The White House, not so much.

Women Rejecting Mitt Even More Than They Fled McCain

Back in 2008, Obama beat McCain by 12% among women.

A new Gallup/USA Today poll among registered voters in 12 swing states shows Obama beating Mitt by 18% among women.  That gives Obama an overall 9% lead.

Karl Rove is probably trying to figure out a way to repeal the 19th Amendment.


Mitt’s Already Lost

In 2010, the gender gap that had plagued the GOP for about 30 years disappeared.  Women and men voted about the same.  But I believe that in 2012, the gender gap will be back, and with a vengeance.

In a presidential election, voters who are not part of either party’s base, look not just at the candidates themselves, but at whether the far left or the far right looks scarier for that particular cycle.  It’s about where the pendulum has swung since the last election and moving it back toward the middle.

For women, the far right will look scarier.  Even if they don’t mind Mitt personally, he will lose votes because of the baggage his base brings on birth control and abortion rights.  They have stirred the pot too much since 2010 both at the state and national level, and the atavistic rhetoric during the presidential primary has only exacerbated the outrage and sense of backsliding, the visceral sense that the GOP is bad for women.

The far left won’t look very scary because we’ve already had one term of President Obama, and we don’t have a hammer and sickle on our flag.  The mansions on the Upper East Side haven’t been broken up into apartments for “the people,” and the estates in the Hamptons haven’t been turned into summer camps for workers.

There are five segments in the electorate.  There are the two segments who always vote R or D.  For them, campaigns are more about entertainment than edification, since their minds are made up.  There are the two segments who “lean” R or D, some of whom register in that party and some of whom register as Independents.  Then there are the people who truly are Independents, who don’t lean consistently and who pretty much start at square one for each presidential race.

Mitt is going to lose many women who lean R and  many women who are true Independents, and therefore he will lose the election.

It’s seven months till the voting, but for me, the election was over at the debate when George Stephanopoulus asked Mitt if he thought states could ban birth control.  From the look on Mitt’s face, I think he knew it too.

Ann Romney Condescends As Well As Mitt

Here’s something cringe-worthy from Ann Romney campaigning in Illinois today:

“And I love it that women are upset, too, that women are talking about the economy, I love that.  Women are talking about jobs, women are talking about deficit spending.  Thank you, women.  We need you.  We all need you in November, too.  We have to remember why we’re upset and what we’ve got to do to fix things.”

Wow, women are worrying their pretty little heads about deficit spending.  Can you imagine?  It must be all that “college” they’ve been going to, you know the place where they hand out birth control pills.  Some of the sluts must be reading economics textbooks in between one sex partner and the next.

I’m guessing the same person wrote this who wrote that tone-deaf crap Mitt spouted in Puerto Rico.  That person shouldn’t be fired, he or she should be shot.  Don’t you just feel as if you’ve been patted on the head, as if you’re five years old?

Don’t worry, Ann, I’ll remember why I’m upset.  And I’ll be hearing so much more from the GOP between now and November to remind me.

Would Santorum Lose Popular Vote, But Win the Electoral College?

Nate Silver has an interesting article at the NYT (“Here Comes Class Warfare”) where he argues that while Romney would do better than Santorum in the popular vote against Obama, Santorum might lose the popular vote, but win the electoral college.  Silver focuses on Santorum carrying Ohio, Michigan and maybe Pennsylvania.

In making these calculations, I think Silver puts too much emphasis on class (he’s focused on working-class whites and Obama’s past struggles with them) and not enough on gender.

I think Santorum would turn off women at all income levels so much that he couldn’t possibly win.