Obama Winning Key Swing States

Since 1960, no one has been elected president without winning at least two of these three states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  A new Quinnipiac poll shows President Obama leading both Mitt and Santorum in all of them.

The economy and unemployment are still the top issues in all three, and President Obama wins among women (the gender gap) in all three, with margins between 6 and 19%.

In Florida, Obama beats Mitt 49 to 42%.  He beats Santorum 50 to 37%.

In Ohio, Obama beats Mitt 47 to 41%.  He beats Santorum 47 to 40%.

In Pennsylvania, Obama beats Mitt 45 to 42%.  He beats Santorum 48 to 41%.


Mitt Delusional Over Women’s Vote

Romney surrogate Bay Buchanan (Pat’s sister — nuff said) believes that Mitt will do fine with women voters and argues that the Republican party “hasn’t made its case yet with women.”*

I would say the GOP has made its case loud and clear, and it’s one that’s going to lose by huge margins, a gender chasm rather than a gender gap.   Don’t probe me, Bro!

*  “Romney surrogates say GOP can win with women in November,” Emily Schultheis, Politico

Santorum and Women

Rick Savonarola Santorum famously lost his Pennsylvania Senate seat in 2006 by 18%.  But it’s interesting to note that he lost women by 22%, compared to 14% among men.

He’s doing poorly among women in national polls now.  In CNN’s latest poll, Santorum gets 29% of women and 37% of men.  Mitt’s numbers are almost the reverse — 38% of women and 29% of men.  And of course this is a poll of just Republican primary voters, so what’s a problem in the primary would be a disaster for him and the GOP in a general election.

Pro-choice women will vote for a man who is against abortion.  We saw this with the “soccer moms” who voted for Bush in 2000 and became the “security moms” who voted for him in 2004 after 9/11.  But asking women to vote for a man who is against contraception is a bridge too far, a bridge to nowhere if the GOP nominates him.