How Tight Is This Race?

Josh Marshall writes at his liberal site Talking Points Memo this morning that by their calculations, Obama has 259 electoral votes and Mitt has 210.

He believes that the only real toss-ups left are Ohio, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia, for a total of 69 remaining electoral votes.  He also says that Mitt could well take all four of them.

Welcome Wisconsin!

I posted last week that only eight states were having a presidential election — New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada.

Well, Wisconsin, come on down!

If Mitt’s now buying ads there, I’ll add all you Badgers to the party.

That said, I’m personally not sure how competitive Wisconsin is.

It hasn’t gone GOP in a presidential election since 1984, when everybody but Minnesota (Mondale’s home state) voted for Reagan.

As for Scott Walker’s surviving the recall, exit polls showed that many voters weren’t voting for Walker as much as they were voting against the recall itself, not thinking it fair to Walker, however they felt about him and his performance.  They felt he’d been elected to a term, and short of committing a felony or some major scandal, he was entitled to complete that term.  I don’t think you can draw a straight line between Walker’s victory and Romney/Ryan carrying the state.

As for Paul Ryan’s pushing his home state into the Mitt column, I’m not buying that either.  Much is made of the fact that Ryan’s congressional district isn’t all that conservative, yet it’s voted for him.  But it’s one thing for locals who know him and his family (he’s fifth generation in the community) and like them to make him one of 435 representatives and a Congress of 535.  They may believe that even if he’s to their right on some issues, he won’t have that much power.  And he was very effective at bringing stimulus money home to his district, even though he opposed the stimulus!  It’s another thing for the whole state to put him and Romney in the White House.  Then you vote overall policy direction more than whether you think Ryan’s a nice guy.