Tag Archives: swing voters

No, No, We Don’t Hate the Kenyan Muslim Communist, We’re Just Disappointed in Him

From “Obama’s new challenge:  Disappointment,” Jonathan Allen, Politico:

“Yet what emerged from Tampa was a subtle, clever shift in GOP messaging, a much more dangerous strategy for Obama than the kitchen-sink attacks that preceded the gathering.  Republicans posed — rhetorically — as Obama 2008 voters, lamenting his unfulfilled expectations as if they had been with him all along instead of trying to block him at every turn.

“Both sides recognize the power of the disappointment theme:  that the hope Obama offered for mending the economy, transforming the political process and even saving the earth has faded.

“Obama’s senior campaign adviser David Axelrod described the convention Friday as an exercise in ‘base’ management, with little crossover appeal.  But the disappointment argument is aimed directly at the decisive 6 percent to 8 percent of voters, mostly independents, who were willing to give Obama a chance four years ago.

“‘Given how the GOP entered the convention on the heels of [Missouri Senate candidate Todd] Akin and the platform discussion, I think they did a very good job of keeping the ‘crazy’ out of the convention.  All the prime-time speakers were reassuring and appeared moderate on social issues,’ Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg said.  ‘In fact, it was a pretty boring convention, in a good way for the GOP.’

“[New Mexico Governor Susana] Martinez told a killer anecdote about her conversion from Democrat to Republican over dinner with her husband and GOP friends.  ‘I’ll be damned — we’re Republicans!’

“The subliminal message to moderate voters?  ‘I’ll be damned — we’re Romney-ans!'”  Emphasis added.

I think that last part is a major stretch.  Even party faithful don’t think of themselves as Romney-ans.

And being disappointed doesn’t also make you stupid.

What Mitt Did Right

From “No silver tongue, but Mitt Romney gets job done,” Jonathan Martin, Politico:

“Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech won’t find its way into any pantheon of memorable convention addresses, but the Republican accepted his party’s nomination with remarks that will help him with swing voters in two important ways.

“Facing grim polling data about his personal appeal, the usually detached Romney finally offered a glimpse of raw emotion as he discussed his late parents and spoke of his love for his own five sons. Choking up on two occasions, Romney revealed a personal side his aides have been trying to find since he began running for president more than five years ago.

“Further, the GOP standard-bearer articulated some of the most compelling lines of attack on President Barack Obama he’s yet to deliver. Romney, grasping for an edge against a history-making incumbent who scores poorly on the economy but remains well-liked, seemed to find a new implicit message for voters: You redeemed America’s promise in 2008, it felt good, but it’s OK to let him go.

“Romney doesn’t have a silver tongue. The roof of the convention hall here was never in danger of being brought down by the crowd. But he showed that he was capable of delivering a solid but not spectacular speech with the pressure on. The broad consensus among Romney watchers: about as good as the CEO-turned-governor was going to do.”   Emphasis added.

The 15% Who Will Decide the Election

Forget the 1%, forget the 99%, focus on the 15%.  Your future is in their hands.

Of those who say they are Independents, about 60% lean toward one of the parties.  The remaining 40% are true “swing voters,” and they are only about 15% of voters.  They will decide who wins in November.

President Obama won 57% of these swing voters last time.  A new poll from Global Strategy Group shows that he currently leads Mitt among them, 44 to 38%.*

What’s especially interesting is that these voters see themselves as closer to Mitt ideologically, but they like Obama better.

Asked to place themselves on a scale of one to nine, with one as liberal, nine as conservative, and five as moderate, the swing voters’ average was 5.2, while they put Mitt at 6.1 and Obama at 3.9.  This would seem to bode well for Mitt.

But 57% of them gave Obama a favorable rating, compared to only 41% for Mitt.

Voting is ultimately an emotional decision.  If Mitt can’t get his favorables up, he will lose.

* “Obama leads among ‘swing’ indies,” James Hohmann, Politico

 

Debate Skills a Must

Rick Perry concedes that he is a lousy debater and is focused on fighting back against Mitt Romney and Herman Cain through speeches and negative ads.  Even if this helps him get the nomination, then what?

Debates are a significant part of the general election campaign, especially for the swing/independent voters that you can’t win without.  Many of them use the debates to make up their minds, while those on the left and right watch them more as entertainment.  If the GOP doesn’t nominate someone who can debate well against President Obama, and Rick Perry isn’t that someone, they are making a huge unforced error.