From John Birch to Tea Party

The John Birch Society was founded in 1958, and six years later the GOP nominated Barry Goldwater.

Maybe we’re in the middle of a similar six-year cycle.  The Tea Party first elected candidates in 2010, and one of theirs might get the 2016 GOP nomination.

I’ve also been thinking about how the John Birch Society, despite being denounced by the GOP establishment, is still exerting a lot of power, both money and candidate-wise.  David and Charles Koch’s father, Fred, didn’t just found Koch Industries, he was also a co-founder of the JBS.  And Rand Paul’s father, Ron, has endorsed the JBS and spoken at their events, including giving the keynote at their 50th anniversary in 2008.  Scary stuff.

Ron Paul Gets the Last Laugh

If you remember the GOP presidential debates of 2008 and 2012 (I know, who the hell wants to do that?), whenever there was a foreign policy or defense question, there was pretty much crazy Ron Paul off by his isolationist self and all the other candidates basically laughing at him and openly embarrassed by him.

But isn’t he getting the last laugh?  Just as the Tea Party pushed the GOP far, far, far to the right on domestic issues, the libertarian isolationists, led in the Senate by Ron’s son Rand, are pushing the GOP far, far, far to the right on national security issues.

When I read that 2016 prez hopeful Marco (“Big Gulp”) Rubio is voting against the Syria resolution, thus ensuring there’s no daylight between him and Rand, I immediately flashed back to those debates where Ron was odd man out in every sense of the word.  And now Rand is seen as reasonable and legit.

We live in scary times.

Quote of the Day — And Maybe the Month

“Between you and me, I’m sort of holding my nose for two years cause what we’re doing here is gonna be a big benefit to Rand in ’16.”

Jesse Benton, Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s campaign manager (probably not for long) for his 2014 re-election, in a recorded telephone conversation with Republican activist Dennis Fusaro.

Fusaro leaked the conversation to the Economic Policy Journal as part of the scandal about Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign paying Iowa State Senator Kent Sorenson to jump ship from Michele Bachmann to Paul.  Under Iowa law, Sorenson couldn’t be paid by a presidential campaign, but he was. We’re talking a couple of hundred thousand dollars here.

Jesse Benton, who married into the Paul family, was Ron Paul’s national campaign chairman in 2012 and Rand Paul’s campaign manager in 2010.

McConnell needs Rand Paul’s support in his fight against Tea Party primary challengers, and then of course McConnell would be heavily in Rand Paul’s debt come 2016.

This is getting nasty, and it isn’t just about Kentucky, it has national implications for the next presidential election.

The Great GOP Unraveling

No sooner was John McCain faced with Jeb Bush’s challenge on immigration from his right, as Jeb did an about-face on his past support for a path to citizenship, when he had to pivot and face Rand Paul’s challenge on drone policy from his left, as Paul filibustered John Brennan’s CIA nomination because he feared Obama was about to launch drone strikes on Americans sitting in cafes in San Francisco.

Today, McCain called Paul a “wacko bird,” along with his pals Ted Cruz and Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan.

Now you can say that John McCain is 76 and on his way out, but remember that his little sidekick Lindsey “Butters” Graham is 57, and their new amiga, Kelly Ayotte, who replaced Joe Lieberman, is only 44.

This isn’t a John McCain problem, this is a GOP problem.

The libertarian wing of the Republican Party has now latched on to the Tea Party element, strengthening both.  Paul and Cruz are both Tea Party guys and libertarians.

The GOP has taken up the Tea Party cry to cut government spending, while trying to protect defense spending.  But the Tea Party/libertarian types don’t want to spare defense any more than they want to spare social programs.  They want to cut the whole damn thing, which makes it impossible for them to co-exist with the neo-cons.

Interestingly, neither McCain nor Paul reflects where the country is.  Since we’re war weary, we’re not with McCain that we should have stayed longer in Iraq and should stay in Afghanistan forever.  But since we’re war weary, we like the drones, which keep the terrorists at bay, while allowing our guys to go safely home at night to their families after they’ve taken out a bad guy.  And while Rand Paul isn’t as extreme on foreign policy as his dad Ron, his lack of concern about Iran’s going nuclear isn’t where the country is either.  So in Goldilocks terms, neither McCain nor Paul is just right for the country, one is too hard and the other is too soft.  If the country is sick of the neo-cons, they don’t want them replaced by neo-isolationists.

Adding to the mix — and the mess — you’ve got the primaries of 2014 and 2016.  Immigration and drones are two very different issues, but having gotten blindsided by Jebbie, Marco Rubio felt he had to support Paul on the filibuster to placate the Tea Party people he will need for a 2016 run.  Similarly, Mitch McConnell felt compelled to praise Paul because he fears a Tea Party primary in 2014.

Then there’s  the money.  The Koch Brothers are libertarians first and Republicans second.  Their financial support will redound to those who spout the libertarian line.  By contrast, Sheldon Adelson, who basically bought Newtie a campaign in 2012, has said that he doesn’t care about gay marriage or abortion, he just cares about Israel.  So his money will go to those who toe the neo-con line.

The GOP is trying to accommodate some very strange bedfellows — and it looks as if no one will get a good night’s sleep anytime soon.

Mitt’s Can’t Win on the Economy Because His Policies Are Losers

From “Clarifying Romney,” James Surowiecki, The New Yorker:

“Romney’s specific policies haven’t helped him much, either, partly because his economic speeches have been light on detail, and partly because his party’s ideology limits the kinds of solutions he can offer to the current job crisisAs a Republican, Romney can’t push for any more stimulus, and is demanding deep spending cuts (without specifying exactly what programs he’d kill).  And, while even a conservative could go after the Federal Reserve for doing too little to boost economic growth, Ropmney has made exactly the opposite argument.  He has said that he would replace Ben Bernanke with someone who would support a ‘strong dollar’ — which means tighter monetary policy, fewer exports, and fewer jobs.”  Emphasis added.

This “strong dollar” garbage is intended to reach out to the Paul people, who want to return to the gold standard.  He won’t just call out crazy for what it is, he panders to it, he appeases it. 

Isaac Forces GOP Convention Delay

As of now, the Republican convention in Tampa will start on Tuesday, not Monday.  They say everyone scheduled to speak on Monday (such as Boehner, Huckabee, Haley) will get a slot later in the week.

The roll-call vote nominating Mitt, which they wanted to have on network-coverage-free Monday because of concerns about the Ron Paul delegates, will now be on Tuesday.

Better Late Than Never

Rick Santorum finally endorsed Mitt — in an email to his supporters.  No sharing a stage, with their joined hands held over their heads.

So that leaves Ron Paul, skulking around picking up more delegates than he should have based on his vote totals and taking over state party machines.  He might be a major pain in Tampa, where they will try to hide the crazy, or at least keep it off the stage in prime time.  Our Founding Fathers will be rolling…

Mitt’s Big Math v. Rick’s Big Mo

Rick Santorum make be claiming the “big mo” out of Alabama and Mississippi, but the math still favors Mitt.

According to the Associated Press, Mitt has 495 delegates, with Santorum at 252, Newt at 131, and Paul at 48.

Mitt is almost halfway to that magic 1144.  Given his lead, he can afford to lose contests, pick up his proportional share of delegates, and claim his crown in Tampa.