You Don’t Want to Be This Guy

Eric Cantor’s pollster, John McLaughlin, told him it was all good at the end of May — he had a 34-point lead over David Brat.

The Best Polls Money Can Buy

The Daily Mail is reporting that internal polls done for Mitt by Neil Newhouse show Mitt up by one in Ohio, two in Iowa, three in New Hampshire, and tied in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Obama won’t campaign tomorrow, he’ll finish in Iowa tonight and go home to Chicago to practice his victory speech.

Mitt had been expected to finish campaigning in New Hampshire tonight, but they’ve added events in Pennsylvania and Ohio tomorrow, after which Mitt will head back to Boston to concede.

The moment we’ve all been waiting for — Mitt’s concession and all the sad, angry faces at Fox.

Despite All the Hot Air, No Bounce for Mitt

Before the GOP convention, Gallup’s poll conducted between August 24 and 27 showed President Obama at 46 and Mitt at 47.

Their poll conducted between August 31 and September 3 shows Obama at 47 and Mitt at 46.

I expect the Prez will get a bounce from his convention.

Rasmussen Shows Romney Up

Today’s Rasmussen (leans GOP) shows Mitt up by 4 over President Obama, 48 to 44.  Before the convention, Rasmussen had Obama up by 2.

I’m interested to see the polling mid-September, after Obama gets his convention bounce and things settle down.

Mitt Upside Down on Favorables/Unfavorables

A new WaPo/ABC News poll shows Mitt’s favorables at 40%, with his unfavorables at 49%.  You can’t win when your favorables are upside down.

President Obama’s favorables are 53%, with his unfavorables at 43%.

Likability = Electability?

In the last five presidential elections, the guy who was considered more likable won.  In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, President Obama has a 30-point edge in likability, 60% to 30%.  But he is in a virtual tie with Mitt on actual votes.

When it comes to the issues, Mitt is viewed as “better” in all the economic ones — the budget deficit (55-36%), creating jobs (50 to 44%), taxes (49 to 45%), and the economy in general (51 to 41%).

They are tied when it comes to health care, 47 to 47%, which makes sense given that Obamacare is Romneycare.

Obama has the edge on foreign affairs, 52-40%, but very few voters make that their most decisive issue.

The Gallup polling summary concludes:  “For now, it appears as if Romney’s economic strengths and Obama’s likability edge are offsetting one another, as voters are evenly divided in their preferences for whom they want to be the next president.”  Emphasis added.

The economy isn’t going to get better between now and November.  But I doubt Mitt is going to get more likable.  And the electoral college map still favors Obama.

The bottom line for me is that this was the GOP’s election to lose, and it will take someone who is a caricature of phoniness, coldness, and cluelessness to give Obama a second term.

Obama Best for Independence Day

And by Independence Day, I don’t mean the event next week, I mean the movie.

A new National Geographic poll (done in conjunction with their new series “Chasing UFOs”) found that almost 65% believe that President Obama would handle an alien invasion better than Mitt.  Aliens meaning extra-terrestrials, not Mexicans.

I find this interesting, given that so often in his off-the-cuff comments Mitt sounds like a Conehead.

Quote of the Evening

“With five months until Election Day, Barack Obama faces a grim new reality:  Republicans now believe Mitt Romney can win, and Democrats believe Obama can lose … Veteran Democratic strategists from previous presidential bids and on Capitol Hill now wonder if the Obama re-election crew is working with the right message … The White House remains on a rough political trajectory, with a potentially adverse Supreme Court decision on the Obama health care law looming, additional bad economic news from Europe coming and more worrisome polling pending … Another danger for the President:  the media freak show.  Stalking that circus’ center ring is Matt Drudge, whose caustic website continues to help drive the news cycle with an emphasis on negative, mocking items about Obama and Vice President Joe Biden and their wives.”

Mark Halperin, “Between the Lines,” Time