Evidence? We Don’t Need No Stinking Evidence.

From “Grand Old Planet,” Paul Krugman, NYT:

“What was [Sen. Marco] Rubio’s complaint about science teaching? That it might undermine children’s faith in what their parents told them to believe. And right there you have the modern G.O.P.’s attitude, not just toward biology, but toward everything: If evidence seems to contradict faith, suppress the evidence.

“The most obvious example other than evolution is man-made climate change. As the evidence for a warming planet becomes ever stronger — and ever scarier — the G.O.P. has buried deeper into denial, into assertions that the whole thing is a hoax concocted by a vast conspiracy of scientists. And this denial has been accompanied by frantic efforts to silence and punish anyone reporting the inconvenient facts.

“But the same phenomenon is visible in many other fields. The most recent demonstration came in the matter of election polls. Coming into the recent election, state-level polling clearly pointed to an Obama victory — yet more or less the whole Republican Party refused to acknowledge this reality. Instead, pundits and politicians alike fiercely denied the numbers and personally attacked anyone pointing out the obvious; the demonizing of The Times’s Nate Silver, in particular, was remarkable to behold.

“What accounts for this pattern of denial? Earlier this year, the science writer Chris Mooney published ‘The Republican Brain,’ which was not, as you might think, a partisan screed. It was, instead, a survey of the now-extensive research linking political views to personality types. As Mr. Mooney showed, modern American conservatism is highly correlated with authoritarian inclinations — and authoritarians are strongly inclined to reject any evidence contradicting their prior beliefs. Today’s Republicans cocoon themselves in an alternate reality defined by Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, and only on rare occasions — like on election night — encounter any hint that what they believe might not be true.

“And, no, it’s not symmetric. Liberals, being human, often give in to wishful thinking — but not in the same systematic, all-encompassing way.”  Emphasis added.

After the election, Charles Krauthammer said the GOP’s problem was a lack of “delicacy” in their communications.  But it’s really an abundance of delusion in their thinking.

 

Morning Shmo

In the final run-up to the election, Joe Scarborough of “Morning Joe” said this about Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog showing an extremely high probability of an Obama victory:

Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they’re jokes.

Here’s Scarborough post-election, after Silver the “ideologue,” Silver the “joke” predicted not just the overall result correctly, but the  outcome in every single state:

I won’t apologize to Mr. Silver for predicting an outcome that I had also been predicting for a year.

By Their Own Logic

Karl Rove has a piece up in the WSJ blaming Hurricane Sandy for stopping Mitt’s Big Mo and giving us four more of the Kenyan Muslim Socialist.  As I pointed out in a post yesterday, Nate Silver established pre-Sandy that Mitt’s momentum had already stopped.

This is a big problem for Rove because he talked a lot of zillionaires into supporting his Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, and he threw their millions down the toilet in what really should have been a slam dunk for the GOP, not just to win the WH, but the Senate as well.  So his  “evil genius” reputation is at stake (well, it’s still half right), and he’s tap dancing pretty strenuously.

But as the GOP tries to blame Sandy for their shitty candidate and party, let’s follow their logic to its end.

Back at the time of Katrina, the religious nuts said it was God’s punishment for the gays and the abortions.

So if God sent Sandy just before the election, and Mitt would have won without Sandy, doesn’t that mean, um, that God wanted Obama to win?

Sleazy Dick Morris Blames Sandy, Christie

Dick Morris predicted a Romney landslide.  He admits his turnout model was wrong (he thought 2008 was an aberration), but it was Sandy and Christie that “made all the difference.”  Bullpucky, as Rachel would say.

From “Why I Was Wrong,” which I got in a mass email from him:

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels.  Didn’t happen.  These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay.

I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008.  I was wrong.  They did.

But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s [sic] fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.

It made all the difference.

Sandy, in retrospect, stopped Romney’s post-debate momentum. [Not trueNate Silver showed that Mitts momentum ended in midOctober, long before Sandy.]  She was, indeed, the October Surprise.  She also stopped the swelling concern over the murders in Benghazi and let Obama get away with his cover-up in which he pretended that a terrorist attack was, in fact, just a spontaneous demonstration gone awry.

This is not your father’s United States and the Republican tilt toward white middle aged and older voters is ghettoizing the party so that even bad economic times are not enough to sway the election.  [Be afraid, white people, be very afraid.  And yes, he really did apply the word “ghettoizing” to white people.]

Emphasis added.

Where’s Nate?

Nate is currently projecting that Obama will get 307 electoral votes and Mitt will get 231 tomorrow.

He gives the Prez an 86.3% chance of winning, and Mitt a 13.7% chance.

As for the Senate, he projects 52 or 53 seats for the Dems and 47 or 48 for the GOP.

He gives the Dems a 91.5% chance of keeping their majority and the GOP an 8.5% chance of taking it.

Tie Goes To Obama

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight on what the national polls portend for the Electoral College:

On Sunday, Mr. Obama led by an average of about one percentage point among seven national surveys. That is not much of an edge, but better than had generally been the case for him just after the Denver debate.

What Mr. Romney will want to see are national polls showing him a point or so ahead in the race, as was the case just after Denver.

If the national polls show a tie on average, then Mr. Romney will be more of an underdog than you might think, since that is when Mr. Obama’s Electoral College advantages will tend to give him their greatest benefit. In the FiveThirtyEight simulation on Saturday, Mr. Obama won the Electoral College about 80 percent of the time when the national popular vote was tied.

The Latest from Nate

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight projects that O will get 305 electoral votes on Tuesday, with 233 for Mitt.

He gives O an 83.7% chance of winning, and Mitt a 16.3% chance.

I hope O doesn’t just win, but wins big to tell the GOP that we’re not buying the ideological and theological garbage they’re selling — that we don’t want to replace the Enlightenment philosophers on whom this country was founded with Ayn Rand nonsense, and we don’t want some people’s religious views imposed on all of us.