Silver on the Senate

Three months ago, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight looked at the Senate races and projected that the GOP would gain 5.8 seats.  Rounding up, that’s six seats, which is what they need to take control.

Now he looks at those races and finds very little movement, projecting the GOP will gain 5.7 seats.

Some specifics:  he gives the Dems an 80% chance of keeping their seat in New Hampshire; says Alaska and North Carolina are 50-50; gives the GOP a slight 55% edge in Arkansas and Louisiana; sees the GOP favored 70-30 in Georgia, 80-20 in Kentucky, and 90-10 in Mississippi.

Silver explains that the 10% Dem chance in Mississippi is based on really no chance if Thad Cochran wins his runoff, and maybe 20% if Chris McDaniel wins.  At this point, it looks as if McDaniel might well win.  But that just translates into a smaller margin for the GOP by nominating the more extreme candidate, not a Dem win.

Can the Dems Keep the Senate?

Leo, the NYT computer model for Senate races, currently gives Dems a 56% chance of keeping their majority.

Leo really doesn’t like Scott Brown.  He [It?] gives Brown only a 3% chance of beating Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire.

As the election season draaaags on, it will be interesting to compare Josh Katz and his Leo with Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight.

Nate Speaks

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com says the GOP has a 60% chance of taking the Senate.

But he’s not bullish on our favorite empty barn jacket, former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, who is now running in New Hampshire against Jeanne Shaheen.  Silver gives Shaheen a 75% chance of keeping her seat, leaving Brown to hop in his pickup truck and perhaps look for love (he is, after all, a former Cosmopolitan centerfold) in yet a third state.