Constitutional Rights Still Available in Mississippi

I had blogged previously about the July 1 temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the law that would close Mississippi’s only abortion clinic.

The TRO was extended today, although the federal district court judge didn’t say for how long, so the clinic will remain open.

Women in Mississippi Still Have Their Constitutional Rights!

At least until July 11.

A new law was supposed to come into effect today that would have shut down Mississippi’s one and only abortion clinic, making Mississippi the only state in the union without such a facility.

A federal judge issued a TRO that will keep the clinic open.  A full hearing is scheduled for July 11.

U.  S. District Judge Daniel Jordan found in part:  “Plaintiffs have offered evidence — including quotes from significant legislative and executive officers — that the Act’s purpose is to eliminate abortion in Mississippi.  They likewise submitted evidence that no safety or health concerns motivated its passage.  This evidence has not been rebutted.”

Newtie Not Exactly Packing Them In

“His first post-Alabama and Mississippi rally in a Chicago suburb drew a measly 75 people to hear him speak. Gingrich, who depends on crowd enthusiasm to boost his own, could start to face the inevitable if he fails to draw people to his events or fundraisers.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74037_Page2.html#ixzz1pAAd6o4G

Trent Lott to Mitt — “I Told You So”

One of the raps on the Romney campaign both in 2008 and this time around is that it is very insular, with a tight-knit group in Massachusetts making all the decisions and not listening to those outside the small inner circle, even when they have relevant expertise and wise advice.  Say, for example, Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi, a Romney supporter and surrogate, who might just know a little bit more about his state than folks sitting around the North End of Boston.

Lott expressed some of his frustration to CNN* today:

“He [Lott] also said Romney and his allied super PAC miscalculated by showering voters with negative ads and phone calls.

“‘You better be very careful in Mississippi if you go negative,’ Lott said.  ‘It tends to backfire.'”

Translation — I warned those clueless Yankees not to go negative, they wouldn’t listen to me, and they came in third.

*  “Republicans to Romney:  Fix your message,” Peter Hamby, CNN

Mitt’s Big Math v. Rick’s Big Mo

Rick Santorum make be claiming the “big mo” out of Alabama and Mississippi, but the math still favors Mitt.

According to the Associated Press, Mitt has 495 delegates, with Santorum at 252, Newt at 131, and Paul at 48.

Mitt is almost halfway to that magic 1144.  Given his lead, he can afford to lose contests, pick up his proportional share of delegates, and claim his crown in Tampa.

Say Good Night, Newtie

Santorum wins both Alabama and Mississippi.

Newt is done.  He stayed in past the point where he could help himself and has only been helping Romney.  Now, even if he refuses to get off the stage, he may not even be able to do that.  If you’re a “not-Mitt” voter, you’re going to vote for Santorum.

Mitt outspent Santorum two to one in Alabama and five to one in Mississippi.  Money can’t buy him love.

Alabama and Mississippi Projections

My go-to guy Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight warns that polls in Alabama and Mississippi have a “pretty awful track record.”

That said, he projects that Newt has a 48% chance of winning Alabama, with a 39% chance for Mitt, and a 13% chance for Santorum.  He predicts that Newt will get 32.3% of the vote, with Mitt getting 31.3%, and Santorum getting 27.9%.

As for Mississippi, he projects that Mitt has a 53% chance of winning, with a 45% chance for Newt, and a 2% chance for Santorum.  He predicts that Mitt will get 33.7% of the vote, with Newt getting 33.2 %, and Santorum getting 25.9%.

Doesn’t look good for Santorum, both in terms of his own performance and the likelihood that Newt will drop out.

That’s also good for Mitt, who doesn’t want Newt to drop out unless Santorum does too.  Gotta split the real conservative vote!

Shocking, But Not Surprising, Obama Religion Poll

A new PPP poll shows that very few voters in Alabama and Mississippi believe that President Obama is a Christian.

In Alabama, 45% said he that he is Muslim, 41% said they didn’t know, and only 14% said that he is Christian.

In Mississippi, 52% said that he is Muslim, 36% said they didn’t know, and only 12% said that he is Christian.

Not that President Obama was expecting to carry Alabama or Mississippi, but still…