Blame the British and French

As Iraq disintegrates, Dems are blaming Bush and Republicans are blaming Obama.  And the same arguments will take place when we finally leave Afghanistan and that God-forsaken place falls apart.

But as we apportion blame, let’s not forget the British and the French.

One of the huge problems we’ve had fighting in Afghanistan is that when we pursue the Taliban, they cross the border into Pakistan, where our ability to follow them is severely restricted.  The Afghans have a save haven there because the people are Pashtun on both sides of the border.  Rather than think of themselves as Afghans or Pakistanis, they think of themselves primarily as Pashtuns.  A sensible border would have all the Pashtuns living in the same country, but noooooo.  Back in 1893, a British colonial official created the Durand Line to separate British India from Afghanistan.  When that part of India became Pakistan in 1947, the absurd border remained, irrationally dividing the Pashtuns.

As for Iraq, the British and French arbitrarily drew the Sykes-Picot line in 1916 (and implemented it after WWI), which falsely divided Ottoman Empire territory into Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, separating Sunni tribes with a purely artificial border.  The Iraq side was for the British, and the Syrian-Lebanese side was for the French, with no regard for the Sunnis who should have been assigned to the same country.  If ISIS weren’t welcomed and joined by Maliki-hating Sunnis as they come from Syria into Iraq, they wouldn’t have been able to make the swift conquest they have.

And don’t get me started on the Kurds, who have really gotten the short end of the stick.  They are a distinct people, Muslim, but not Arab.  They should have an independent Kurdistan (and maybe will when this mess get resolved) that unites the Kurds now divided among Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.

Europe Really Needs to Step Up

President Obama will ask Congress for another $1 billion to improve security in Europe against the threat from Putin.  I have no problem with this.

What I do have a problem with is how little the Europeans do for themselves.  NATO’s members promised in 2006 to spend at least 2% of their GDP on their militaries, but of 28 members, only Britain, Greece, and Estonia, besides of course the U. S., have met that low standard.  Everyone talks about the great trains and inexpensive health care in Europe.  Well, that’s because they spend next to nothing on defense, relying too much on us, while our infrastructure is falling apart.  If they’re so worried about Putin, they need to stop building their houses of straw and sticks, while we get stuck providing the bricks.

I’m especially looking at you, France.  While the French can’t be bothered to defend themselves (again), they also won’t cancel their $1.6 billion sale of warships to Putin.  So they make our job tougher and more expensive.  You know, Mesdames et Messieurs, it’s your damn continent.  We just come over now and then (like 70 years ago today, when our soldiers got slaughtered on your Normandy beaches, while you all hung out in cafes in Paris) to save your sorry behinds.

Do We Have an Hollande Problem Here?

The National Enquirer says that the Obamas’ marriage is basically over, and that Michelle found out that the Secret Service covered up two instances of his cheating on her.  They claim she was refusing to return to DC for her birthday party, but finally agreed.

I know, consider the source, but they were right about John Edwards, and we all know there was something really off about her not returning from Hawaii with the Prez and the girls after Christmas.  Their younger daughter, Sasha, always looks unhappy in public.  I think the older one, Malia, is better at putting on a public face.

All-Purpose, Accurate Headline You Can Run Anytime

The President of France Is Having an Affair

This Sounds More Like Putin

So now Putin is saying that for Syria to give up its chemical weapons, the U. S. has to renounce the use of force first.  Okay, this makes a little more sense, this sounds more like the Vlad I know.

Aside from that ridiculous, DOA demand, the thing is already falling apart at the U. N.  The Russians have told the French that a Security Council resolution must be toothless — it can’t contain any threat of military action if Syria doesn’t follow through on transferring its chemical weapons to international authorities.

We don’t have a potential solution here, people, just an ever-expanding mess.

What’s Russian for rope-a-dope?

Algerian Terror Incident

The State Department confirms that the Algerian military launched an assault on Islamic extremists who are holding foreigners hostage at a BP natural gas plant.

Algeria claims it freed 600 hostages, while Islamic terrorists claim that the raid killed 35 hostages and 15 kidnappers.

Americans are among those held, but their fate is unknown.

This Algerian act of terror was in retaliation for France’s fight against terrorists in Mali because Algeria is allowing France to use its air space.

Nurse Merkel Offers More Bandaids

At the European Summit, Italy, France, and Spain did their best to gang up on Germany, but didn’t get much in return.  Merkel is still vehemently opposed to euro bonds, and I don’t see that changing, no matter what.

Italy and Spain will find it easier to get aid from the European bailout fund (the European Stability Mechanism or ESM), but the ESM didn’t get any more money.  Its maximum is still about $633 billion, when Italy and Spain owe about five times that amount.

The ESM will put money directly into Spanish banks rather than using the Spanish government as a pass-through.  And private bondholders of Spanish banks won’t be subordinate to government bond holders.

Such tiny steps have failed to satisfy the markets in the past.

By refusing to “go big,” Europe’s leaders are setting up the euro zone to go bust.

 

Merkel — Euro Bonds Over My Dead Body

With France, Spain, and Italy supporting euro bonds (shared European debt), Germany’s Angela Merkel told them to fugeddaboudit:  “I don’t see total debt liability as long as I live.”

There’s another EU Summit this Thursday and Friday, but I think they’re running out of road to kick the can down.

This isn’t going to be pretty, either in Europe or here.

If you’re Mitt, it’s all good.   For the President and the rest of us, not so much.

 

How Can These Folks Have the Same Currency?

Pew Surveys show that 73% of Germans consider economic conditions “good,” compared to 19% of the French, and 6% of the Spanish.

H/T David Brooks.

Leaders in Europe Ceding Control by Their Inacton

If Europe’s leaders don’t set policy at the top soon, the street is going to take over, and panic and fear will dictate events, not elected officials.

Spain is experiencing a run on its banks (either moving money from weak banks to stronger ones or out of the country entirely) that is only going to gain more momentum, and Spain’s deposit insurance system is bankrupt.  There is still time for Europe to offer European-wide deposit insurance that would quell this run before it becomes a full-blown panic.  Of course, Germany doesn’t want to do this.

European leaders have to decide if they want to cut Greece loose, but try to save other countries like Spain.  That’s the first decision.  Are you going to try to save everyone, are you going to try to save everyone but Greece, or are you going to let the whole thing go to hell?

Europe could offer euro-zone deposit insurance to everybody in the euro zone or dump Greece and offer it to the remaining countries.

Europe could offer euro-zone bonds guaranteeing countries’ debt to everybody or dump Greece and offer them to the remaining countries.

But Europe’s leaders are in a state of paralysis, which in itself is a form of decision-making, an abdication of control and responsibility.

Greece has become an excuse for not addressing the problems of other weak periphery countries, like Spain and Italy.  But ignoring these problems doesn’t make them go away.  Not deciding becomes a decision.

We saw what happened in this country when events overtook our leaders in September 2008, and our entire financial system was brought to the brink of collapse.  We saw Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson go down on his knees, begging Nancy Pelosi to stay in bailout talks after the Republicans walked out.  For Paulson, the arrogant former head of Goldman Sachs and the quintessential Master of the Universe, to be brought to such a shocking state tells you how close we came to tipping over the edge, how close we came to another depression.

Europe is on its knees, and Angela Merkel is on her way out of the room.