Nate Silver over at Five Thirty Eight gives Mitt an 86% chance of winning Illinois on Tuesday, with a 14% chance for Santorum.
As for Wisconsin on April 3rd, those numbers are almost reversed. He gives Santorum an 81% chance of winning, with an 18% chance for Mitt.
My go-to guy Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight warns that polls in Alabama and Mississippi have a “pretty awful track record.”
That said, he projects that Newt has a 48% chance of winning Alabama, with a 39% chance for Mitt, and a 13% chance for Santorum. He predicts that Newt will get 32.3% of the vote, with Mitt getting 31.3%, and Santorum getting 27.9%.
As for Mississippi, he projects that Mitt has a 53% chance of winning, with a 45% chance for Newt, and a 2% chance for Santorum. He predicts that Mitt will get 33.7% of the vote, with Newt getting 33.2 %, and Santorum getting 25.9%.
Doesn’t look good for Santorum, both in terms of his own performance and the likelihood that Newt will drop out.
That’s also good for Mitt, who doesn’t want Newt to drop out unless Santorum does too. Gotta split the real conservative vote!