From “One Wall Street Seer Says The Greek Tragedy Is Near,” Andrew Ross Sorkin, NYT:
“If you want to be scared, truly terrified, listen to Mark J. Grant. He might be right.
“For the last two years, Mr. Grant, a managing director at a regional investment bank in Florida, has been predicting the bankruptcy of Greece and a cascade of chaos across the global economy.
“‘Greece will default because there is no other choice regardless of anyone’s politics.’
“Mr. Grant in a Jan. 13, 2010 report forecast that Greece would default on its government debts, one of the first to publish such a prognostication.
“The January 2010 report, written two years before Greece did indeed default, has made him the go-to forecaster for some of the world’s largest investors.
“Sadly, Mr. Grant is not predicting the default of just Greece, he’s already on to Spain (he reached that conclusion before many others, too).
“He has convinced himself that Germany, the only country in a position to help, will not come to the rescue. ‘You can bank on one thing if nothing else; the Germans will not allow their cost of funding to rise or their standard of living to decline to help the nation that have gotten themselves in trouble. You can count on this!’
“[W]e are headed for a bad recession with lots ‘of shocks to the system.’ He says this will likely happen in the next four months or ‘it could come sooner.’” Emphasis added.
In Chicago, they’re hoping to keep the sick men of Europe alive till the second week of November; in Boston, they want to remove life support ASAP.