Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight.com gives Jeb Bush and Scott Walker each a 25% chance of getting the nomination. He gives Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, and Chris Christie 5%.
I give Paul and Christie 0%.
Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight.com gives Jeb Bush and Scott Walker each a 25% chance of getting the nomination. He gives Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, and Chris Christie 5%.
I give Paul and Christie 0%.
I’m no fan of Mitt Romney, but Mittens was right when he looked at the GOP field and was not impressed. The field is certainly wide. But deep? Not so much.
First of all, aside from entertainment value, you can safely ignore Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson. None of these guys is going to be the 2016 Republican nominee. Okay, maybe if Hillary finds a magic lamp in some Upper East Side antique store… But let’s assume Alladin isn’t Ready for Hillary.
Ted Cruz probably falls in that group too. Just because you breathe fire, doesn’t mean you’re going to catch fire. “Clueless” and “obnoxious” aren’t high on the list of what voters look for in a candidate.
As for his fellow Texan, Rick Perry, he’ll do better than 2012, being off the pain meds and all. So he’ll be able to remember a list of three. Hell, maybe he’ll do four or five. But he still comes across as dumber and goofier than George W. Bush. He’ll have a less bizarre and humiliating, but still unsuccessful, go this time around.
As for Scott Walker and Marco Rubio, the eyes have it. Watch a clip of Scott Walker with the sound off and just look into his eyes. Not a helluva lot going on there, he’s the poster boy for “dumb look.” Rubio? Watch the water grab in the SOTU response and look at the absolute terror in his eyes. If he panics over a sip of water, how is he going to fare in a room with Putin? Vlad, by the way, wouldn’t give a damn if he needed a sip of water — or vodka — during a speech. Anyone going to snicker at Mr. KGB? I think not. I don’t entirely write either off the way I do the others — Walker could unite the Establishment and the Tea Party and Rubio has some foreign/defense policy chops (especially compared to Walker) in an election where the Mideast Morass will feature prominently. But really, neither one has what it takes.
Chris Christie? Mittens knows more about him than we do from his Veep vet in 2012, and Mittens didn’t like what he learned. Skeletons aside, Christie won’t wear well, we’ll be sick to death of him long before the NH primary. Mitt has been gone just a few days, and Christie is already spouting nonsense about vaccines. When his mouth isn’t full of food, it’s full of bluster and BS.
We come to Jebbie. Mitt looked at him and saw a much less successful version of himself as a businessman. But as a politician, Jeb is far less awkward and off-putting than Mitt. He doesn’t make you cringe. He’ll be the grown-up on the debate stage. He’ll have all the money he needs.
So there you have it, America. A “wide and deep” field — of one.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo softened a bit on the quarantine for health care workers returning from West Africa. He now says they can do their 21-day quarantine at home and that they will be compensated for lost wages.
Soon after Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said that New Jersey residents can also be quarantined at home (he didn’t address lost income), and that efforts would be made to get non-Jersey residents back to their own states for their quarantine. But once a person leaves New Jersey, I don’t know what jurisdiction Christie would have to impose a quarantine on them if their home state doesn’t have such a requirement.
There’s still a gap between Cuomo/Christie and the Obama Administration, but it’s been narrowed somewhat.
“I got to tell the truth. I’m tired of hearing about the minimum wage, I really am.”
New Jersey Gov. (and 2016 GOP hopeful) Chris Christie
I doubt he’s as tired as the people who try to live on it.
Esquire reports* that some of Chris Christie’s people will be indicted as soon as next month for Bridgegate — his Port Authority appointees, David Samson, Bill Baroni, and David Wildstein as well as his former chief counsel, Charlie McKenna.
Key quotes:
“Don’t underestimate what Wildstein has on Christie. And Wildstein and Baroni have both turned on Samson. If Samson doesn’t give Fishman Christie, Samson is toast.
“They’ve got him cold. He got sloppy, arrogant, and greedy. Samson will want a deal. This way, he’d get one or two years. He’d have a future on the other side. He won’t want to die in jail. [Samson is 74.]
“But Fishman is really focused on Christie. Ultimately, he believes he’ll get to the governor.”
* “Exclusive: Prosecutor Is Closing In on Gov. Christie,” Scott Raab and Lisa Brennan
Jebbie is smiling.
“He makes you feel that your life’s going to be very unhappy if you don’t do what he says.”
Former NJ Governor Thomas Kean on Tony Soprano Chris Christie.
“What else would you expect from Mastro, the former baseball-bat-wielding deputy mayor under womanizing Rudy Giuliani?”
Linda Stasi, New York Daily News, on Randy Mastro’s million-dollar Bridgegate report, which Stasi calls “Fifty Shades of Bullshit.”
Sing, Bridget, sing.
So Chris Christie went to Las Vegas to speak to the Republican Jewish Coalition and suck up to Sheldon Adelson, the biggest GOP donor in 2012.
It didn’t go well. We’re talking Amateur Hour at the Bijou. Adelson’s biggest cause is Israel, and Christie committed a shocking faux pas by referencing Israel’s “occupied territories” in his speech. There was an audible gasp, people. The politically correct term for the RJC and Adelson (and Christian Evangelicals who love them some Israel so Jesus will come back and send all the Jews to Hell and them to Heaven) is “disputed territories.” Even Sarah Palin knows that, it’s probably written on one of her hands. Christie could have just said the West Bank, and not gotten himself into trouble.
But to get Adelson to open his checkbook, Christie should have said the magic words “Judea and Samaria.”
[Bridget Anne Kelly] is a single mother of four children who was deeply devoted and committed to her job at the Office of the Governor. She worked tirelessly to pursue the goals of the Office during her tenure.”
Statement from Kelly’s lawyer in response to the Mastro report alleging that Kelly is an emotionally basket case and cougar slut and Chris Christie is a saint who should be our next president.
Not only did she “pursue the goals,” when she gets immunity from prosecution, she will share those “goals” with us in all of their Jersey toughness and tawdriness. And “the goals of the Office” will keep Christie from his goal of higher office.
That arrogant ass Mastro is going to have to eat his report.
Quick note — Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has a post up today comparing this to Anita Hill and “nutty and slutty.” But you read it first here yesterday! Um, maybe he did too.