Nate Silver’s latest forecast model* shows that President Obama has an 80.7% chance of winning, with Mitt at 19.3%. This is a 6.2% change in the President’s favor since a week ago.
Silver’s forecast model gives Obama 319 electoral votes to 219 for Mitt.
Note that this forecast model presumes and takes into account a convention bounce for Obama. Silver has another model, which predicts what would happen if the election were held today, that gives Obama an 83% chance of winning, with Mitt at 17%.
From “State of the race: Advantage, Obama,” Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, Politico:
“President Barack Obama heads out of the national political conventions with a much clearer path to winning, top advisers to Mitt Romney privately concede.
“The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers – most glaringly in Ohio – are working in the president’s favor.
“’Their map has many more routes to victory,’ said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio — but it’s extremely difficult.
“The Obama and Romney campaigns anticipate little movement in national polls before the first debate on Oct. 6, which both see as the most important day of this campaign. They also see eye-to-eye on their belief the election will come down to whether Romney can persuade voters he understands the problems of ordinary people [NO!] and that his solutions are at least marginally better for turning things around economically [NO!].” Emphasis added.
Over at the FiveThirtyEight blog at the NYT, Nate Silver explains why he gives President Obama as 76.3% chance of winning with Mitt at 23.7%:
1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an almost exact tie in the race.
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now, then he will eventually lose.