Sochi Hypocrisy?

WaPo has an interesting story* pointing out that eight U. S. states have so-called “no homo promo” bans in their school curricula that are very much like Russia’s anti-gay laws.  These states — and I’m sure you already guessed some of them — are Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona, Utah, and Oklahoma.

But I’m still not watching the Olympics because of the dog killing.  You spent $50 billion and you couldn’t build an animal shelter?

* “Eight U. S. states have policies similar to Russia’s ban on gay propaganda,” Niraj Chokski

When Is a Supreme Court Loss Actually a Win?

Law professor Peter J. Spiro has a very interesting “briar patch” take on tough state immigration laws and the Supreme Court:*

“Such laws [Arizona’s S.B. 1070 and similar laws in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Indiana] are misguided at best, mean-spirited and racially tainted at worst.  The conventional wisdom among immigration advocates is that immigrant interests will be best served if the Supreme Court makes an example of Arizona’s law by striking it down.

“But in the long run, immigrant interests will be better helped if the Supreme Court upholds S. B. 1070.  Laws like Arizona’s are such bad policy that, left to their own devices, they will die a natural death — and their supporters will suffer the political consequences.

“Undocumented immigrants may themselves be politically powerless, but they have powerful allies.  In Alabama and Georgia, dismayed farmers have watched crops rot in the fields for want of immigrant labor. Arizona is estimated to have lost more than $140 million from convention cancellations made in protest.

“Even more important is the prospect of lost foreign investment.  Caught in the net of Alabama’s law in November was a German Mercedes-Benz executive, who left his passport at home while out for a drive and as a result found himself in a county jail.  Mercedes has a plant in Tuscaloosa that employs thousands of Alabamans and adds many hundreds of millions  of dollars to the state economy.  That embarrassment will make the next foreign company think twice as it scouts out a location for a manufacturing facility in the United States.”

*  “Let’s Arizona’s Law Stand,” NYT

Newtie Not Exactly Packing Them In

“His first post-Alabama and Mississippi rally in a Chicago suburb drew a measly 75 people to hear him speak. Gingrich, who depends on crowd enthusiasm to boost his own, could start to face the inevitable if he fails to draw people to his events or fundraisers.”
Read more:

Mitt’s Big Math v. Rick’s Big Mo

Rick Santorum make be claiming the “big mo” out of Alabama and Mississippi, but the math still favors Mitt.

According to the Associated Press, Mitt has 495 delegates, with Santorum at 252, Newt at 131, and Paul at 48.

Mitt is almost halfway to that magic 1144.  Given his lead, he can afford to lose contests, pick up his proportional share of delegates, and claim his crown in Tampa.

Say Good Night, Newtie

Santorum wins both Alabama and Mississippi.

Newt is done.  He stayed in past the point where he could help himself and has only been helping Romney.  Now, even if he refuses to get off the stage, he may not even be able to do that.  If you’re a “not-Mitt” voter, you’re going to vote for Santorum.

Mitt outspent Santorum two to one in Alabama and five to one in Mississippi.  Money can’t buy him love.

Alabama and Mississippi Projections

My go-to guy Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight warns that polls in Alabama and Mississippi have a “pretty awful track record.”

That said, he projects that Newt has a 48% chance of winning Alabama, with a 39% chance for Mitt, and a 13% chance for Santorum.  He predicts that Newt will get 32.3% of the vote, with Mitt getting 31.3%, and Santorum getting 27.9%.

As for Mississippi, he projects that Mitt has a 53% chance of winning, with a 45% chance for Newt, and a 2% chance for Santorum.  He predicts that Mitt will get 33.7% of the vote, with Newt getting 33.2 %, and Santorum getting 25.9%.

Doesn’t look good for Santorum, both in terms of his own performance and the likelihood that Newt will drop out.

That’s also good for Mitt, who doesn’t want Newt to drop out unless Santorum does too.  Gotta split the real conservative vote!

Shocking, But Not Surprising, Obama Religion Poll

A new PPP poll shows that very few voters in Alabama and Mississippi believe that President Obama is a Christian.

In Alabama, 45% said he that he is Muslim, 41% said they didn’t know, and only 14% said that he is Christian.

In Mississippi, 52% said that he is Muslim, 36% said they didn’t know, and only 12% said that he is Christian.

Not that President Obama was expecting to carry Alabama or Mississippi, but still…