Ukraine’s acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyk has signed the “association” agreement with the European Union that Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign, leading to his ouster and Russia’s seizing of the Crimea.
It is just a political agreement, not a trade agreement, so it’s a long way from Ukraine’s actually joining the EU.
“In the days since Vladimir Putin sent Russian troops into the Crimea, it has been amateur hour back in Washington.
“I don’t mean Barack Obama. He’s doing pretty much everything he can, with what are a very limited set of policy options at his disposal. No, I’m talking about the people who won’t stop weighing in on Obama’s lack of “action” in the Ukraine. Indeed, the sea of foreign policy punditry – already shark-infested – has reached new lows in fear-mongering, exaggerated doom-saying and a stunning inability to place global events in any rational historical context.
…
“But this crisis is Putin’s Waterloo, not ours.
“Which brings us to perhaps the most bizarre element of watching the Crimean situation unfold through a US-centric lens: the iron-clad certainty of the pundit class that Putin is winning and Obama is losing. The exact opposite is true.
“Putin has initiated a conflict that will…result in greater diplomatic and political isolation as well as the potential for economic sanction. He’s compounded his loss of a key ally in Kiev by further enflaming Ukrainian nationalism, and his provocations could have a cascading effect in Europe by pushing countries that rely on Russian’s natural gas exports to look elsewhere for their energy needs. Putin is the leader of a country with a weak military, an under-performing economy and a host of social, environmental and health-related challenges. Seizing the Crimea will only make the problems facing Russia that much greater.”
Michael Cohen, “Don’t listen to Obama’s Ukraine critics: he’s not ‘losing’ — and it’s not his fight,” The Guardian
From “How Iran, Putin and Assad Outwitted America,” David Keyes, The Daily Beast:
“Historians will look back at the present moment with astonishment that Iran so skillfully outwitted the West. They will note the breathtaking naivete of American and European officials who let a brutal theocracy undermine Western interests throughout the Middle East. At one of Iran’s most vulnerable moments, America threw the mullahs a life-line; an ill-conceived nuclear deal coupled with a complete inability to stop Syria, Iran’s closest ally, from continuing to slaughter en masse. …
“[Iranian foreign minister Mohamed] Zarif’s mission to Moscow quells any lingering hopes that Russia can be seduced away from Syria or Iran. Putin has made a simple calculation: Assad will protect his interests better than anyone. Russia, in turn, has made it clear that it will prop up Syria’s tyrant and their Iranian backers at almost any cost. …
“Iran, Syria and Russia appear to be the strong horses of the Middle East. Assad slaughters with impunity because he knows that no one will actually stop him. Russia knows it can get away with backing Syria and Iran, because who is ready to pay the price to stop it? …
“It is no surprise that Iran’s mullahs are gloating that they outwitted the West with the recent nuclear deal. They did. Our sincere and overwhelming desire for peace clouded a sober reading of Iran’s intentions. …
“In this Middle Eastern proxy war, it often seems that only one side is actually fighting. Russia is pouring massive sums of money and arms into Syria to prop up Assad. …”
I know we’re all enthralled by Christie’s bad motives in closing down those lanes, but the big story is Obama’s good intentions in paving this road to Hell.
The misguided GOP focus on deficits and austerity in the U. S. is messing up the whole world’s economy. From the NYT*:
“The Europeans lately have slightly eased their austerity policies, after four years of deep spending cuts and rising taxes that many economists blame for keeping the Continent in recession long after America’s ended.
“And the Obama administration, after years of pressing Europe to adopt American-style stimulus measures, is now presiding — if reluctantly — over European -style austerity that is measurably slowing its recovery. …
“The new reality in the Unites States reduces the president’s already limited leverage in his fiscal debate with Europeans…even as Europe’s woes continue to act as a drag on its trading partners, including the United States.”
I would force every Republican member of Congress to write “Keynes was right” on the blackboard 1,000 times.
* “Lines Blur in U.S.-Europe Debate on Austerity,” Jackie Calmes
“This is what passes for good economic news in Europe: Spain just added 265 jobs.”
“Down So Long, It looks Like Up to the Euro Zone,” Jack Ewing, NYT
In case you’re wondering, there are almost 5 million unemployed people in Spain.
In the time lag between Jeb Bush’s finishing his new book and the thing getting published, many in his party became, if not enthusiastic about, at least resigned to, a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. One of the most prominent flippers was Jeb’s fellow Floridian and mentee Marco Rubio, who has been working along side John McCain and Lindsey “Butters” Graham to get the Senate to approve a comprehensive immigration bill including such a path, knowing full well they will face tremendous resistance in the Tea-Party-heavy GOP House.
Now Jeb has upset the apple cart (or taco stand) by flipping away from the path to citizenship he has long supported, leaving Rubio, who just recently flipped the other way, thinking he was matching Jeb, mortified. Jeb is giving comfort — and ammunition — to those in Congress who oppose the path, not to mention the monkey wrench he has thrown into some 2016 ambitions.
Jeb’s book just came out today, and already he is walking himself back toward the “path” he abandoned, saying he could support a path “where there isn’t an incentive for people to come illegally.” When he wrote the book, Jeb thought he was flipping in a way that would clear away one obstacle (he still has his last name) to his running in 2016. He thought he would make primary voters happy, but he’s made many powerful players in his party extremely unhappy with his disastrous timing.
The GOP has been trying to effect this change quietly, without calling a lot of attention to it, in a casual, oh-by-the-way manner as Sean Hannity has done. Now Jeb has upset things not just by the substance of his position, but by putting an unwelcome spotlight on the issue itself.
Jeb’s book calls for a path to “permanent residency,” rather than a path to citizenship for those who came here illegally. It’s interesting how some in the GOP, while constantly protesting that Obama is turning us into Europe, think it’s a wonderful idea to emulate Europe in this respect, where they have guest workers who have no way to become citizens, in effect a two-tiered society.
Since Europe doesn’t have our Constitution, guest workers’ children don’t become citizens if they are born in the country where their parents are working. Here, either permanent residents’ children who are born here would be citizens or we’d need a Constitutional amendment preventing that. Jeb says his lack of a path to citizenship would discourage illegal immigration, but it won’t work if their children would still be citizens at birth. The prospect of your children being Americans would provide tremendous incentive to get yourself here, even if you know you’ll never become a citizen.
Keep walking Jeb — backwards — as fast as you can.
Islamic extremists have attacked a BP natural gas site in Algeria and seized 41 European, Japanese, and American hostages. Seven of the hostages are believed to be American. Two foreigners were killed in the initial attack.
Algerian troops have surrounded the facility.
Looks like a rescue mission for the Israelis…
Paul Krugman reports (“The Big Fail,” NYT) from the annual meeting of the American Economic Association:
“The crisis in Greece was taken, wrongly, as a sign that all governments had better slash spending and deficits right away. Austerity became the order of the day, and supposed experts who should have known better cheered the process on, while the warnings of some (but not enough) economists that austerity would derail recovery were ignored. For example, the president of the European Central Bank confidently asserted that “the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect.”
“Well, someone was incorrect, all right.
“Of the papers presented at this meeting, probably the biggest flash came from one by Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh of the International Monetary Fund. Formally, the paper represents the views only of the authors; but Mr. Blanchard, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, isn’t an ordinary researcher, and the paper has been widely taken as a sign that the fund has had a major rethinking of economic policy.
“For what the paper concludes is not just that austerity has a depressing effect on weak economies, but that the adverse effect is much stronger than previously believed. The premature turn to austerity, it turns out, was a terrible mistake.
“European leaders, having created Depression-level suffering in debtor countries without restoring financial confidence, still insist that the answer is even more pain. The current British government, which killed a promising recovery by turning to austerity, completely refuses to consider the possibility that it made a mistake.
“And here in America, Republicans insist that they’ll use a confrontation over the debt ceiling — a deeply illegitimate action in itself — to demand spending cuts that would drive us back into recession.” Emphasis added.
Here’s Charles Krauthammer from “The Choice” at WaPo:
“An Obama second term means that the movement toward European-style social democracy continues, in part by legislation, in part by executive decree. The American experiment — the more individualistic, energetic, innovative, risk-taking model of democratic governance — continues to recede, yielding to the supervised life of the entitlement state.
“Every four years we are told that the coming election is the most important of one’s life. This time it might actually be true. At stake is the relation between citizen and state, the very nature of the American social contract.”
This is just pure delusion. In 2008, pundits could make wild claims about who Obama was and what he wanted to do. But he’s been president for four years, a very moderate and centrist president, one who has frustrated the left of his own party. We’ve seen him, we’ve lived with him, he is no radical.
By contrast, it is Romney/Ryan who are a true threat to the American social contract with their dramatic shifts of wealth and resources even further upward. They are the threat to the middle class and those hoping to join it.
And if you want to talk about a “supervised life,” what better example could there be than the government forcing you to have your rapist’s baby? Romney/Ryan, both supporters of the Personhood Amendment, offer their own sick version of an entitlement state where fertilized eggs are more entitled than those of us who are already here.
Aside from Bill, Barry has another BFF, Mario.
The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, announced today that the bank will buy lots and lots of bonds from struggling euro zone countries to help reduce their borrowing costs, especially Italy and Spain. Draghi in effect drew a line in the sand, saying “The euro is irreversible.”
One country voted against the bond-buying plan. That’s right — Germany.
Do I think this will save the euro? No. But it means there won’t be a big panic between now and our election.
It also seems as if Israel won’t attack Iran between now and November 6, although Bibi is not exactly another BFF.
Looks as if Barry has everything under control. He just has to get through the debates without checking his watch or sighing and rolling his eyes.
Embattled Farmers 