Bottom Line on Immigration Reform

From “Immigration reform heads for slow death,” Mike Allen and Jim VendeHei, Politico:

“Republicans walked away from their 2012 debacle hell-bent on fixing their problems with Hispanics. Now, they appear hell-bent on making them worse.

“In private conversations, top Republicans on Capitol Hill now predict comprehensive immigration reform will die a slow, months-long death in the House. Like with background checks for gun buyers, the conventional wisdom that the party would never kill immigration reform, and risk further alienating Hispanic voters, was always wrong — and ignored the reality that most House Republicans are white conservatives representing mostly white districts.

“These members, and the vast majority of their voters, couldn’t care less whether Marco Rubio, Bill O’Reilly and Karl Rove say this is smart politics and policy.”

So we see the conflict between the GOP winning the House and winning the Senate and the White House.  For now, that conflict is nowhere near getting solved.  Fine with me…
The calculation after 2012 from national strategists like Rove was that the GOP couldn’t waiver on abortion.  In fact, the famous post-mortem the RNC did on the election doesn’t even mention abortion.  The plan was to continue to throw women under the bus and try to bring Hispanics on board, thinking that wouldn’t cost them the Evangelicals the way any moderation on abortion would.  So now there’s really no plan.
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7 comments on “Bottom Line on Immigration Reform

  1. Great stuff, EF, as always.

    So long term, how do you see this playing out for the GOP. And not just the next presidential election. Do you think the Party could literally die and be replaced by something else?

    • I think we could use a party that minds its own business on social issues and believes in smaller, more efficient government, but is not isolationist on foreign policy/defense issues like the libertarians.
      I don’t see the GOP dying in my lifetime, but of course my lifetime isn’t very long at this point.
      I’ve started a new “thing,” not sure if it’s a story or a book called “Better Early Than Never.” It’s a love story (of course) set on the French Riviera in 1969.
      I highly recommend Mary Ward Brown’s memoir “Fanning the Spark.” It’s one of the best things I’ve read about writing. Pages 135-138 alone are worth the price of admission. I had never heard of her until I read her obit in the NYT and then I read her story collection “Tongues of Flame” (also recommended) and now her memoir.
      I hope all is well with you and D. I’m still struggling with my sick livestock.

      • So… Maybe the GOP gets hammered in a couple more elections because of the “white strategy” and control by those on the far right, and then the moderates take it back over allowing it to finally start winning again (in districts that aren’t gerrymandered)?

        And thanks so much for the update! I’ve been meaning to email you. And I’ll go track down that book on Amazon. Much love to you from Oak Ridge!

      • A long wait for those gerrymandered districts to change. And it’s not just a “white strategy,” it’s an anti-youth, anti-women strategy, so besides race, they’ve got age and gender against them. It’s a “keep the House” strategy, which is enough to kill things like immigration reform. So I see it as more about obstructing than governing for now.
        Much love back to you and D.

      • Yeah, I guess it is more than just a white strategy. And I heard just yesterday that you sent ANOTHER check to our friend. Your heart is soo big… So glad I know you, and you’ll be glad to hear that he finally got approved for his disability! Including the back payments he is owed.

      • That is wonderful about our friend getting his payments, including back ones! I just hope he gets the care he needs…

      • Yeah, he said he really wants to somehow make that happen. I didn’t have time to talk to him — I was on deadline — but I’ll find out more about that.

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