Dick Morris predicted a Romney landslide. He admits his turnout model was wrong (he thought 2008 was an aberration), but it was Sandy and Christie that “made all the difference.” Bullpucky, as Rachel would say.
From “Why I Was Wrong,” which I got in a mass email from him:
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s [sic] fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.
It made all the difference.
Sandy, in retrospect, stopped Romney’s post-debate momentum. [Not true. Nate Silver showed that Mitt‘s momentum ended in mid–October, long before Sandy.] She was, indeed, the October Surprise. She also stopped the swelling concern over the murders in Benghazi and let Obama get away with his cover-up in which he pretended that a terrorist attack was, in fact, just a spontaneous demonstration gone awry.
This is not your father’s United States and the Republican tilt toward white middle aged and older voters is ghettoizing the party so that even bad economic times are not enough to sway the election. [Be afraid, white people, be very afraid. And yes, he really did apply the word “ghettoizing” to white people.]