This Makes Me Nervous

Nate Silver at the FiveThirtyEight blog at the NYT is suggesting that Obama should concede Florida.

He writes, “Romney has made larger-than-average gains in the state since the Denver debate, and has now become a definitive favorite there.”

Silver’s model gives Mitt a 69% chance of carrying the state on November 6.  If the election were held today, he gives Mitt a 78% chance.

Obama doesn’t have to carry Florida to win, but if he does, it would make it very, very challenging for Mitt to find another electoral path to 270.

2 comments on “This Makes Me Nervous

  1. danielfee says:

    It is much to early to give up on Florida. Especially before the foreign policy debate. It would be smart to send Bill Clinton down here.

    • It’s as if O hasn’t gotten as big a bounce out of the 2nd debate as he lost in the 1st. With the economy still as bad as it is, he couldn’t afford any mistakes. I’m guessing O’s internal polls aren’t looking good right now.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s