Over at the FiveThirtyEight blog at the NYT, Nate Silver explains why he gives President Obama as 76.3% chance of winning with Mitt at 23.7%:
1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an almost exact tie in the race.
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now, then he will eventually lose.