Uh Oh

From “Professors’ study predicts Romney win,” Alex Byers, Politico:

“Mitt Romney will win the popular vote and take the White House with more than 300 electoral votes, according to an election model that correctly determines the winner when applied to the last eight presidential elections.

“The model, based on state-level economic data, predicts that President Barack Obama will lose nearly all key states that many observers view as toss-ups: North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. He’d also drop Pennsylvania and Minnesota, where polls indicate Obama is ahead, the study says.

“The analysis, authored by Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, looks at unemployment rates and per capita income from the last 22 years and builds a model that would have accurately predicted each election. It also looks at other indicators, like which party currently holds the White House.”

Ok, but Mitt wasn’t the nominee in any of those last eight presidential elections.

9 comments on “Uh Oh

  1. Roni Jordan says:

    Exactly the point; the model does not factor in the absurdity of the opposititin candidate. Studies such as this are bogus. I have a study showing that everyone who ate apples in an odd-numbered year from 1801-1879 eventually died. Was it the apples?

  2. momshieb says:

    I feel a little sick.

  3. danielfee says:

    You know what they say GIGO (Garbage in Garbage Out). If they are using the same parameters that they used coming out of other recsssions since the 1980’s then they will have flawed results. I will stick with Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight for better forcasting results.

    • I’m a Nate girl myself.

      • Can you all enlighten me? What does Nate Silver say?

      • That Obama will win.

      • One of the Republican blogs I follow posted to this story and said in a snarky way at the top of his post, “You could have just taken my word for it.”

        Then went on to cite this as proof of a victory. Here is my response, which I watered down a bit so the venom wouldn’t be too heavy against me. (Still no response to the comment yet. Might have hit too close to home.”

        I’m calling it for Obama.

        Romney should win it, even should be way ahead, but he’s Romney.

        He picks Ryan, then says he won’t use Ryan’s plan. Then says he will.

        Todd Akin screwed him this week.

        The problem is he can’t drive his economic message home because of all the other stuff.

        He won the primary because the others flamed out and he buried them with negative ads. I just don’t think he’s talented enough to survive the interviews, the debates, etc., without flaming out — even with the money advantage, the struggling economy, etc.

        I still think back to when he had the primary in the bag and he finally relented and did a Fox News interview, and then blew it so bad that it scared everyone. The man has not done enough interviews — not even close, in my opinion, to come off as firm, polished, etc.

        His overseas tour was a disaster, and I just think he will continue to blunder because his political staff have shielded him far too much, when they should have let him be taking some early hits and learning some valuable lessons.

      • I heartily agree with all of the above.

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