If You Want to Enjoy Your Weekend

Check out “Michael Tomasky on the (Possible) Coming Obama Landslide,” Daily Beast:

“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know — or should — but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business.  The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing.  This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs.  Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

“In other words, Obama can lose the big Eastern four — Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida:  all of em! — and still be reelected.

“And barring some huge cataclysm, he’s not losing all four of those state.  If he wins even one — say Virginia, the smallest of the four — then Romney has to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire; all possible, certainly, but all states where he has been behind, narrowly but consistently, for weeks or months.

“The list of states where Obama holds that narrow but consistent lead is long:  Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  Michigan and Wisconsin are no longer really narrow.  Florida is more or less a dead heat.  The bottom line is that of the dozen or so key swing states, Romney leads only in one:  North Carolina.

“Now most political journalists would chuckle derisively at the idea that Obama is going to carry home 330 EV’s.  Deride away.

“Liberals are too nervous to think it, reporters too intent on a ‘down to the wire’ narrative, and conservatives too furious and disbelieving, but it’s shaping up to be true:  An extremely close election that on election night itself stands a surprisingly good chance of being not that close at all.”

I feel good about the electoral map too.  But if something were to happen, the states where Obama has that narrow but consistent lead could fall to Mitt like dominoes.  Whatever made one swing suddenly and decisively to Mitt could do the same in all of them.

There’s way too much time for anyone to feel comfortable or complacent.

4 comments on “If You Want to Enjoy Your Weekend

  1. Harris Jordan says:

    With all the POSSIBILITIES, how am I going to enjoy the weekend?

  2. seattle99 says:

    I believe he’ll have the electoral votes locked up BEFORE the debates; and AFTER, ‘landslide’.

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