Moody’s Analytics does complex modeling of elections based on factors like historical voting patterns, unemployment, and per capita income. They are currently predicting that President Obama will win at least 26 states with 303 electoral votes.
Their models suggest that Obama will keep the swing states of Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada that he won last time, but that Florida might flip to Mitt.
For more, see “President Obama’s good news-bad news economy,” Ben White, Politico.
Embattled Farmers 
From Moody’s lips to God’s ears!
We have a long way to go.