Obama’s Map

That Heilemann article in New York Magazine also points out how propitious the electoral college map is for President Obama:

“The safe presumption…is that Obama holds the nineteen states plus the District of Columbia that John Kerry won in 2004 — which, recall, did not include Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia, all of which Obama carried in 2008, giving the president a base of 246 electoral votes.  There’s the western path:  Obama holds Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa for a total of 272.  There’s the midwestern path:  Obama holds Ohio and Iowa (270).   There’s the southern path:  Obama holds North Carolina and Virginia (274).  And there’s the Florida path, in which Obama simply again takes the Sunshine State (275).

“In truth, the most promising of all the routes to 270 is the western one, because of the dominant lead Obama possesses over Romney with Hispanics.  Indeed, if you factor in New Mexico, which the president nabbed in 2008 and is considered safe this time, and Virginia, which has a sizable Latino population, a relatively strong economy, and polls consistently showing Obama ahead, he can hit 270 without winning Iowa, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, or North Carolina.”  Emphasis added.

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