Follow the Ads

There are differing opinions about what are the true swing states in 2012.  If you want to know where the Romney and Obama campaigns believe they are competitive, but not a sure thing, follow the early ads for the general.

The Obama campaign has just bought ads in nine states — Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

The NYT also believes there are currently nine swing states, but it differs from the Obama campaign by including Wisconsin and not North Carolina.  I think Wisconsin will go for Obama.

North Carolina’s status as a state that typically goes Republican, but went for Obama last time, highlights the concern the campaign showed about Vice President Biden’s comments supporting gay marriage yesterday, comments they  walked back almost as quickly as he uttered them.  North Carolina is voting on an amendment to their state constitution that would ban gay marriage, even though they already have a statute banning gay marriage.  The amendment is expected to pass.  The Obama campaign doesn’t want to lose North Carolina this time around by moving too far left on social issues.

Funny how the GOP can’t seem to move too far right.  However outlandish their positions become, the folks at the top never feel the need to rein them in, they just go along, as Mitt has with the absurd “Personhood” amendments that wouldn’t just ban abortion, but many forms of contraception.  Mitt has placed himself to the right of the voters of Mississippi, which rejected such an amendment.  Hard to imagine being that far right without falling off the edge.

Some media sources consider Arizona a swing state.  I think it will be tough for the Dems there.

There’s also a question about Indiana.  It typically goes Republican, but went for Obama last time, like North Carolina.

So GOPers think Mitt can carry Michigan.  Good luck with that.

It will be interesting to see what resources the Obama campaign puts into Arizona and Indiana.

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