Former CIA agent Reuel Marc Gerecht has an interesting column (“How Washington Encourages Israel to Bomb Iran”) in the WSJ:
“Whatever the cost of its nuclear program, the regime has surely spent the vast majority of the monies required to deliver a nuclear weapon, and Tehran certainly still has the few billions required to finish producing highly enriched uranium, triggering devices, and warheads for its ballistic missiles.
“Sanctions are a good tool to deny Tehran resources, but as a tool to stop nuclear weapons they aren’t particularly menacing. They may now have become primarily a means to stop the Israelis, not the Iranians, from achieving their desired ends.
“It’s an excellent bet that the Israelis now know that the CIA probably has no sources inside the upper reaches of the Iranian scientific establishment, Mr. Khamenei’s inner circle, or the Revolutionary Guards’ nuclear brigade.
“The Israelis surely know that when the administration says it has ‘no evidence’ that Mr. Khamenei has decided to build a nuclear weapon, this really means that Washington has no solid information. That is, Washington is guessing….”
The whole thing is worth a read.